March 8, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +43 |
Matt Schnell overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Louis Smolka.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 993 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:18 | 3:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 049 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +89 |
Matt Schnell earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 013 | 987 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Matt Schnell slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 35.0% vs 54.2% accuracy. Matt Schnell capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:18 | 0:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Matt Schnell controlled Louis Smolka on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:28 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Matt Schnell demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Schnell capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +29 |
Matt Schnell extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Matt Schnell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 992 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.