July 10, 2015
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 046 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 150 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Louis Smolka earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 100 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Neil Seery controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (92 vs 36 total strikes), 1 knockdown. However, since Neil Seery lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Louis Smolka's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:04 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 119 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -95 |
Louis Smolka controlled Neil Seery on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 12:04 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 061 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Louis Smolka demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Louis Smolka capitalized on this activity level, while Neil Seery's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 056 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Louis Smolka extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Neil Seery is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Neil Seery |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.