October 23, 2015
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -18 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 067 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:09 | 4:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 204 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -35 |
Louis Smolka earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:09, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Paddy Holohan was submitted.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 150 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Louis Smolka controlled the striking exchanges with 66 vs 31 total strikes, 59 vs 16 significant strikes, 66.3% vs 40.0% accuracy. Louis Smolka capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:57 | 4:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 40 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 172 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Louis Smolka edged out Paddy Holohan on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:57 of control time, 40 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 115 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -22 |
Louis Smolka demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Louis Smolka capitalized on this activity level, while Paddy Holohan's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 083 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -20 |
Louis Smolka extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paddy Holohan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Paddy Holohan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.