November 23, 2018
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 996 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Louis Smolka's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Louis Smolka for the expected result. Had Sumudaerji pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:07 | 2:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 103 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -36 |
Louis Smolka earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:07, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sumudaerji was submitted.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 043 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Louis Smolka edged the striking exchanges with 42 vs 20 total strikes, 32 vs 18 significant strikes, 51.6% vs 60.0% accuracy. Louis Smolka capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:58 | 0:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 29 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 055 | 864 |
| ELO Change | +136 | -136 |
Louis Smolka dominated Sumudaerji on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:58 of control time, 29 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 329 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 055 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Louis Smolka demonstrated standard activity with 329 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Louis Smolka capitalized on this activity level, while Sumudaerji's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 034 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Louis Smolka started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sumudaerji is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Sumudaerji |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 013 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.