April 14, 2017
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +40 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 987 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 089 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Tim Elliott earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 98 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 144 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Tim Elliott dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 47 total strikes, 57 vs 41 significant strikes, 62.6% vs 42.3% accuracy. Tim Elliott capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 12 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 14 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:39 | 8:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 962 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Tim Elliott controlled Louis Smolka on the ground with 12 vs 1 takedowns, 8:03 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 057 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +55 |
Tim Elliott demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Elliott capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +29 |
Tim Elliott started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Tim Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.