December 3, 2021
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 982 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +53 |
Vince Morales overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Louis Smolka.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 994 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 097 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +138 |
Vince Morales earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 963 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -135 | +135 |
Vince Morales controlled the striking exchanges with 55.1% vs 71.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Vince Morales capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Vince Morales landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 364 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 037 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +49 |
Vince Morales demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vince Morales capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 364-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Vince Morales extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Louis Smolka | Vince Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 993 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.