April 20, 2018
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 000 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Siyar Bahadurzada's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Siyar Bahadurzada for the expected result. Had Luan Chagas pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:40 | 2:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 028 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +50 |
Siyar Bahadurzada gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Siyar Bahadurzada controlled the striking exchanges with 61 vs 31 total strikes, 33 vs 11 significant strikes, 51.6% vs 29.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Siyar Bahadurzada capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:34 | 1:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 032 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Siyar Bahadurzada landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Siyar Bahadurzada demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Siyar Bahadurzada capitalized on this activity level, while Luan Chagas's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Siyar Bahadurzada extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luan Chagas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luan Chagas | Siyar Bahadurzada |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.