March 18, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 049 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Molly McCann's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Molly McCann for the expected result. Had Luana Carolina pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 016 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:52 | 1:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 004 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +89 |
Molly McCann gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 85 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 132 | 159 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 99 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Molly McCann controlled the striking exchanges with 99 vs 76 total strikes, 85 vs 64 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Molly McCann capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:27 | 4:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 922 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -98 | +98 |
Molly McCann landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 037 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Molly McCann demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Molly McCann capitalized on this activity level, while Luana Carolina's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Molly McCann extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luana Carolina is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luana Carolina | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.