April 7, 2023
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 133 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -28 |
Luana Pinheiro overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Michelle Waterson-Gomez.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 053 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Luana Pinheiro receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 188 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 086 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Michelle Waterson-Gomez controlled the striking through superior volume (70 vs 48 total strikes), significant strike advantage (61 vs 44). However, since Michelle Waterson-Gomez lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Luana Pinheiro's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:25 | 1:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 107 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Luana Pinheiro did not secure a significant ground advantage against Michelle Waterson-Gomez on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:25 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 504 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 067 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -25 |
Luana Pinheiro demonstrated extended layoff with 504 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Luana Pinheiro capitalized on this activity level, while Michelle Waterson-Gomez's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Luana Pinheiro extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luana Pinheiro | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 055 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.