May 17, 2025
Women's Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 120 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Luana Santos's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luana Santos for the expected result. Had Tainara Lisboa pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 189 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -38 |
Luana Santos earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:59, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Tainara Lisboa was submitted.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 34 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 131 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Luana Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 50 vs 7 total strikes, 15 vs 6 significant strikes, 78.9% vs 17.6% accuracy. Luana Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:57 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 223 | 898 |
| ELO Change | +183 | -183 |
Luana Santos dominated Tainara Lisboa on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:57 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 582 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Luana Santos demonstrated standard activity with 274 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Luana Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Tainara Lisboa's 582-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 069 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Luana Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tainara Lisboa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 056 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.