Lucas Almeida vs Pat Sabatini

June 16, 2023

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1009
(-47)
Lucas Almeida
Winner: Pat Sabatini
Submission
Round 2 • 1:48

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Lucas Almeida-47
Pat Sabatini+50
1139
(+50)
Pat Sabatini

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -28Pat Sabatini: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Total UFC Fights26
Experience Gap-44
Experience ELO1 0521 146
ELO Change-28+28
💡

What Happened

Pat Sabatini's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Pat Sabatini for the expected result. Had Lucas Almeida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -19Pat Sabatini: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0031 074
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -36Pat Sabatini: +56

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:481:48
Win Type ELO1 0491 188
ELO Change-36+56
💡

What Happened

Pat Sabatini earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lucas Almeida was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -155Pat Sabatini: +155

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Significant Strikes Landed227
Significant Strikes Attempted435
Total Strikes Landed388
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0021 118
ELO Change-155+155
💡

What Happened

Pat Sabatini dominated the striking exchanges with 88 vs 3 total strikes, 27 vs 2 significant strikes, 77.1% vs 50.0% accuracy. Pat Sabatini capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -92Pat Sabatini: +92

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:006:27
Ground Strikes Landed024
Ground ELO9451 283
ELO Change-92+92
💡

What Happened

Pat Sabatini dominated Lucas Almeida on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 6:27 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -15Pat Sabatini: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Days Since Last Fight378273
Activity ELO1 0081 137
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

Pat Sabatini demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Pat Sabatini capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Almeida's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -18Pat Sabatini: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0071 092
ELO Change-18+20
💡

What Happened

Pat Sabatini started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Almeida is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Lucas Almeida: -19Pat Sabatini: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricLucas AlmeidaPat Sabatini
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0031 074
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.