June 16, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 052 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Pat Sabatini's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Pat Sabatini for the expected result. Had Lucas Almeida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:48 | 1:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 049 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +56 |
Pat Sabatini earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lucas Almeida was submitted.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 002 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -155 | +155 |
Pat Sabatini dominated the striking exchanges with 88 vs 3 total strikes, 27 vs 2 significant strikes, 77.1% vs 50.0% accuracy. Pat Sabatini capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 6:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 945 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Pat Sabatini dominated Lucas Almeida on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 6:27 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 378 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Pat Sabatini demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Pat Sabatini capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Almeida's 378-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Pat Sabatini started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Almeida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lucas Almeida | Pat Sabatini |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

