April 9, 2016
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 045 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Lucas Martins's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lucas Martins for the expected result. Had Robert Whiteford pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Lucas Martins receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Robert Whiteford controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (90 vs 31 total strikes), significant strike advantage (45 vs 30), superior accuracy (45.5% vs 34.5%). However, since Robert Whiteford lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Lucas Martins's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 018 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Lucas Martins did not secure a significant ground advantage against Robert Whiteford on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 316 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 079 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Lucas Martins demonstrated standard activity with 316 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Lucas Martins capitalized on this activity level, while Robert Whiteford's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 042 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Lucas Martins started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Robert Whiteford is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lucas Martins | Robert Whiteford |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.