Lucio Linhares vs Rousimar Palhares

December 11, 2009

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

976
(-24)
Lucio Linhares
Winner: Rousimar Palhares
Submission
Round 2 • 3:21

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Lucio Linhares-24
Rousimar Palhares+27
1084
(+27)
Rousimar Palhares

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -24Rousimar Palhares: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Total UFC Fights14
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9761 105
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

Rousimar Palhares's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rousimar Palhares for the expected result. Had Lucio Linhares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -20Rousimar Palhares: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9801 044
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -31Rousimar Palhares: +47

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:213:21
Win Type ELO9691 144
ELO Change-31+47
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What Happened

Rousimar Palhares earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lucio Linhares was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -18Rousimar Palhares: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Significant Strikes Landed86
Significant Strikes Attempted2714
Total Strikes Landed3121
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9821 063
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

Lucio Linhares controlled the striking through superior accuracy (29.6% vs 42.9%). However, since Lucio Linhares lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rousimar Palhares's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -46Rousimar Palhares: +46

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Takedowns Landed21
Takedowns Attempted22
Ground Control Time1:514:05
Ground Strikes Landed84
Ground ELO9541 145
ELO Change-46+46
💡

What Happened

Rousimar Palhares controlled Lucio Linhares on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:05 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -17Rousimar Palhares: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Days Since Last FightN/A329
Activity ELO9831 080
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

Rousimar Palhares demonstrated standard activity with 329 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rousimar Palhares capitalized on this activity level, while Lucio Linhares's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -19Rousimar Palhares: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9811 050
ELO Change-19+23
💡

What Happened

Rousimar Palhares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucio Linhares is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Lucio Linhares: -20Rousimar Palhares: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricLucio LinharesRousimar Palhares
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9801 041
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.