December 11, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Rousimar Palhares's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rousimar Palhares for the expected result. Had Lucio Linhares pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:21 | 3:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +47 |
Rousimar Palhares earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:21, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lucio Linhares was submitted.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Lucio Linhares controlled the striking through superior accuracy (29.6% vs 42.9%). However, since Lucio Linhares lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rousimar Palhares's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:51 | 4:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Rousimar Palhares controlled Lucio Linhares on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:05 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 329 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Rousimar Palhares demonstrated standard activity with 329 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rousimar Palhares capitalized on this activity level, while Lucio Linhares's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Rousimar Palhares extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucio Linhares is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lucio Linhares | Rousimar Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

