October 11, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +42 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 197 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matt Frevola receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 110 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 101 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Luis Pena lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Matt Frevola's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:05 | 2:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 087 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Matt Frevola edged out Luis Pena on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 2:53 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 091 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +33 |
Matt Frevola demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Frevola capitalized on this activity level, while Luis Pena's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Matt Frevola extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luis Pena is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.