February 28, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 091 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Luis Pena's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luis Pena for the expected result. Had Steve Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 217 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Luis Pena earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 98 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 119 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Steve Garcia controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (98 vs 58 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (21 vs 27), superior accuracy (53.8% vs 64.3%). However, since Steve Garcia lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Luis Pena's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 14:02 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 131 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Luis Pena controlled Steve Garcia on the ground with 0 takedowns, 14:02 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 122 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -16 |
Luis Pena demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Luis Pena capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Garcia's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Luis Pena started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luis Pena | Steve Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

