Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia

February 28, 2020

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1102
(+25)
Luis Pena
Winner: Luis Pena
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Luis Pena+25
Steve Garcia-23
977
(-23)
Steve Garcia

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +26Steve Garcia: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Total UFC Fights61
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 091974
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

Luis Pena's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luis Pena for the expected result. Had Steve Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +20Steve Garcia: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 042980
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +20Steve Garcia: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 217980
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

Luis Pena earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +18Steve Garcia: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Significant Strikes Landed2721
Significant Strikes Attempted4239
Total Strikes Landed5898
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 119982
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Steve Garcia controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (98 vs 58 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (21 vs 27), superior accuracy (53.8% vs 64.3%). However, since Steve Garcia lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Luis Pena's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +44Steve Garcia: -44

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted11
Ground Control Time14:020:14
Ground Strikes Landed196
Ground ELO1 131956
ELO Change+44-44
💡

What Happened

Luis Pena controlled Steve Garcia on the ground with 0 takedowns, 14:02 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +31Steve Garcia: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Days Since Last Fight141N/A
Activity ELO1 122984
ELO Change+31-16
💡

What Happened

Luis Pena demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Luis Pena capitalized on this activity level, while Steve Garcia's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +21Steve Garcia: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 054981
ELO Change+21-19
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What Happened

Luis Pena started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Steve Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Luis Pena: +20Steve Garcia: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricLuis PenaSteve Garcia
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 042980
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.