May 15, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Mark Munoz's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mark Munoz for the expected result. Had Luke Barnatt pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 068 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Mark Munoz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 994 | 978 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Luke Barnatt controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (98 vs 43 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (42 vs 35). However, since Luke Barnatt lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mark Munoz's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 7:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 932 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Mark Munoz dominated Luke Barnatt on the ground with 9 vs 1 takedowns, 7:55 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +28 |
Mark Munoz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Mark Munoz capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Barnatt's 175-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 988 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Mark Munoz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Barnatt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Mark Munoz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.