November 21, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 001 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +43 |
Roger Narvaez overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Luke Barnatt.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 093 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Roger Narvaez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 110 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 019 | 962 |
| ELO Change | -103 | +103 |
Roger Narvaez controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 41 total strikes, 48 vs 34 significant strikes, 43.6% vs 26.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roger Narvaez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 3:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 022 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -88 | +88 |
Roger Narvaez landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +42 |
Roger Narvaez demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roger Narvaez capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Barnatt's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Roger Narvaez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Barnatt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luke Barnatt | Roger Narvaez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.