November 16, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 945 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +32 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:29 | 4:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 916 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +81 |
Marcus Aurelio earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 845 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -106 | +106 |
Marcus Aurelio dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 11 total strikes, 20 vs 6 significant strikes, 74.1% vs 46.2% accuracy. Marcus Aurelio capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 2:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 908 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Marcus Aurelio controlled Luke Caudillo on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:23 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 159 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 957 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +63 |
Marcus Aurelio demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Marcus Aurelio capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Caudillo's 159-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 957 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Marcus Aurelio started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Caudillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luke Caudillo | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 957 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.