April 17, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 278 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -40 |
Luke Rockhold overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Lyoto Machida.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 096 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:31 | 2:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 430 | 1 487 |
| ELO Change | +102 | -66 |
Luke Rockhold earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:31, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Lyoto Machida was submitted.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 44 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 381 | 1 518 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Luke Rockhold edged the striking exchanges with 39 vs 19 total strikes, 23 vs 13 significant strikes. Luke Rockhold capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:10 | 1:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 434 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | +165 | -165 |
Luke Rockhold dominated Lyoto Machida on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:10 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 210 | 1 360 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -34 |
Luke Rockhold demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Luke Rockhold capitalized on this activity level, while Lyoto Machida's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 128 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -31 |
Luke Rockhold extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lyoto Machida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.