August 19, 2022
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 203 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +39 |
Paulo Costa overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Luke Rockhold.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 118 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 382 | 1 433 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Paulo Costa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 70 | 103 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 197 | 1 405 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Paulo Costa controlled the striking exchanges with 106 vs 57 total strikes, 73 vs 51 significant strikes. Paulo Costa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 5:28 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 231 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -121 | +121 |
Paulo Costa controlled Luke Rockhold on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 5:28 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 141 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 185 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Paulo Costa demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Paulo Costa capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Rockhold's 1141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 131 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Paulo Costa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Rockhold is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.