May 17, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -17 | 17 |
| Experience ELO | 986 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Vitor Belfort's 17-fight experience advantage (18 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vitor Belfort for the expected result. Had Luke Rockhold pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:32 | 2:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 996 | 1 550 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +8 |
Vitor Belfort earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 989 | 1 500 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Vitor Belfort controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Vitor Belfort capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Vitor Belfort landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 995 | 1 365 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +12 |
Vitor Belfort demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vitor Belfort capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Rockhold's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 988 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +14 |
Vitor Belfort extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Rockhold is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Luke Rockhold | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 987 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.