October 23, 2009
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 310 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Lyoto Machida's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lyoto Machida for the expected result. Had Mauricio Rua pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 244 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -12 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Lyoto Machida captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 482 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Lyoto Machida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 146 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 672 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
Mauricio Rua controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (82 vs 39 total strikes), significant strike advantage (80 vs 35), superior accuracy (54.8% vs 32.4%). However, since Mauricio Rua lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Lyoto Machida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 2:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 452 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
Lyoto Machida did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mauricio Rua on the ground with 0:23 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 327 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -10 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 8 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 293 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -10 |
Lyoto Machida continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Mauricio Rua's now at 0.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 162 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.