May 7, 2010
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 262 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +60 |
Mauricio Rua overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Lyoto Machida.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 212 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +97 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Mauricio Rua captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:35 | 3:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 417 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +141 |
Mauricio Rua earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 486 | 1 498 |
| ELO Change | -186 | +186 |
Mauricio Rua controlled the striking exchanges with 17 vs 9 significant strikes, 60.7% vs 81.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mauricio Rua capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 405 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Mauricio Rua landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 294 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +41 |
Mauricio Rua demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mauricio Rua capitalized on this activity level, while Lyoto Machida's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 259 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +37 |
Mauricio Rua started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lyoto Machida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 133 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.