August 2, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 257 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +54 |
Phil Davis overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Lyoto Machida.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 203 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 451 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Phil Davis earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 502 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Lyoto Machida controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (27 vs 21), superior accuracy (44.3% vs 23.3%). However, since Lyoto Machida lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Phil Davis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 1:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 345 | 1 439 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Phil Davis controlled Lyoto Machida on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:11 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 321 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +71 |
Phil Davis demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Phil Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Lyoto Machida's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 234 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +36 |
Phil Davis extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lyoto Machida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Phil Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 135 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.