April 29, 2011
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 279 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -30 |
Lyoto Machida overcame a 13-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 24 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Randy Couture.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 217 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:05 | 1:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 496 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -45 |
Lyoto Machida gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 505 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Lyoto Machida controlled the striking exchanges with 15 vs 5 significant strikes, 31.9% vs 21.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lyoto Machida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 436 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 324 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -31 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Couture's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 251 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Lyoto Machida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Couture is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 141 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.