August 3, 2012
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 271 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Lyoto Machida's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lyoto Machida for the expected result. Had Ryan Bader pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 214 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:32 | 1:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 513 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -27 |
Lyoto Machida gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 31 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 521 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Lyoto Machida controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 7 significant strikes, 67.7% vs 21.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lyoto Machida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 385 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 324 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Bader's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 244 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Lyoto Machida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Bader is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Ryan Bader |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 140 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.