February 2, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 926 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Lyoto Machida overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sam Hoger.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 047 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Lyoto Machida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Lyoto Machida controlled the striking exchanges with 84 vs 40 total strikes, 62 vs 11 significant strikes, 65.3% vs 23.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lyoto Machida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:47 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 086 | 886 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -86 |
Lyoto Machida dominated Sam Hoger on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 7:47 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 304 |
| Activity ELO | 1 023 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Hoger's 304-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Lyoto Machida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Hoger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Lyoto Machida | Sam Hoger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.