July 26, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Melvin Guillard's 8-fight experience advantage (20 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Mac Danzig pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 968 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:47 | 2:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 125 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +70 |
Melvin Guillard gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 049 | 1 330 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 23 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:13 | 0:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 950 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Melvin Guillard landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 030 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Mac Danzig's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Melvin Guillard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mac Danzig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mac Danzig | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 968 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.