April 9, 2021
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 169 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (7 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:48 | 4:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 240 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -30 |
Mackenzie Dern earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:48, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 175 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Mackenzie Dern edged the striking exchanges with 31 vs 5 total strikes, 12 vs 4 significant strikes. Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 309 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -87 |
Mackenzie Dern dominated Nina Nunes on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:00 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 672 |
| Activity ELO | 1 214 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -14 |
Mackenzie Dern demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this activity level, while Nina Nunes's 672-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -18 |
Mackenzie Dern extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nina Nunes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Nina Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.