April 8, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 186 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -28 |
Mackenzie Dern overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tecia Pennington.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 090 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 206 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mackenzie Dern receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 76 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 124 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 157 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Tecia Pennington controlled the striking through superior volume (78 vs 58 total strikes), significant strike advantage (76 vs 50), superior accuracy (61.3% vs 32.1%). However, since Tecia Pennington lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mackenzie Dern's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 2:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 289 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Mackenzie Dern did not secure a significant ground advantage against Tecia Pennington on the ground with 2:24 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 212 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Mackenzie Dern demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this activity level, while Tecia Pennington's 245-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Mackenzie Dern started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tecia Pennington is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Tecia Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

