December 11, 2020
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 145 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Mackenzie Dern's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mackenzie Dern for the expected result. Had Virna Jandiroba pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 073 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 190 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Mackenzie Dern earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 174 | 134 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 101 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 122 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Mackenzie Dern controlled the striking exchanges with 101 vs 80 total strikes, 82 vs 63 significant strikes. Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:34 | 2:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 222 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Mackenzie Dern did not secure a significant ground advantage against Virna Jandiroba on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:34 of control time, 3 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 178 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -16 |
Mackenzie Dern demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since her last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this activity level, while Virna Jandiroba's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 091 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Mackenzie Dern extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Virna Jandiroba is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Virna Jandiroba |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

