September 30, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 150 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (10 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 068 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 186 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Yan Xiaonan earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 113 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 195 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 224 | 151 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 116 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Yan Xiaonan dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 224 total strikes, 113 vs 61 significant strikes, 57.9% vs 40.4% accuracy. Yan Xiaonan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:19 | 4:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 257 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Yan Xiaonan did not secure a significant ground advantage against Mackenzie Dern on the ground with 0 takedowns, 4:11 of control time, 7 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 186 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +33 |
Yan Xiaonan demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Yan Xiaonan capitalized on this activity level, while Mackenzie Dern's 175-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Yan Xiaonan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mackenzie Dern is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mackenzie Dern | Yan Xiaonan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.