September 1, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Michel Prazeres's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Michel Prazeres for the expected result. Had Mads Burnell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:26 | 1:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +36 |
Michel Prazeres earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:26, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mads Burnell was submitted.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 30 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 971 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Michel Prazeres controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 12 total strikes, 26 vs 10 significant strikes, 54.2% vs 33.3% accuracy. Michel Prazeres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 8:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 937 | 1 346 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Michel Prazeres dominated Mads Burnell on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 8:51 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +20 |
Michel Prazeres demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michel Prazeres capitalized on this activity level, while Mads Burnell's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +28 |
Michel Prazeres continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Mads Burnell's now at 0.
| Metric | Mads Burnell | Michel Prazeres |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

