April 19, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Magomed Mustafaev's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Magomed Mustafaev for the expected result. Had Rafael Fiziev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:26 | 1:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 199 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -26 |
Magomed Mustafaev earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:26, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 212 | 897 |
| ELO Change | +103 | -103 |
Magomed Mustafaev controlled the striking exchanges with 10 vs 1 significant strikes, 83.3% vs 100.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Magomed Mustafaev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 042 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Magomed Mustafaev landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 882 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 067 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -18 |
Magomed Mustafaev demonstrated extended layoff with 882 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Magomed Mustafaev capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Fiziev's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Magomed Mustafaev started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Fiziev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Magomed Mustafaev | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.