December 16, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 030 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Rafa Garcia's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafa Garcia for the expected result. Had Maheshate pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 067 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Rafa Garcia earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 141 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Rafa Garcia controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 30 total strikes, 49 vs 25 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 17.7% accuracy. Rafa Garcia capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 6:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 942 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -81 | +81 |
Rafa Garcia dominated Maheshate on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 6:10 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Rafa Garcia demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafa Garcia capitalized on this activity level, while Maheshate's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Rafa Garcia started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Maheshate is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Maheshate | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.