March 18, 2022
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 017 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Makwan Amirkhani's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Makwan Amirkhani for the expected result. Had Mike Grundy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:57 | 0:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 184 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -35 |
Makwan Amirkhani locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:57 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 917 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 0 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 0:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 195 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Makwan Amirkhani edged out Mike Grundy on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:15 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 309 |
| Activity ELO | 1 079 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Makwan Amirkhani demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Makwan Amirkhani capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Grundy's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Makwan Amirkhani started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Grundy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Makwan Amirkhani | Mike Grundy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

