February 12, 2021
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Polyana Viana's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Polyana Viana for the expected result. Had Mallory Martin pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:18 | 3:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 972 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +60 |
Polyana Viana earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 947 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Polyana Viana dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 14 total strikes, 25.0% vs 71.4% accuracy. Polyana Viana capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:25 | 0:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 920 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Polyana Viana edged out Mallory Martin on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:18 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +40 |
Polyana Viana demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Polyana Viana capitalized on this activity level, while Mallory Martin's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Polyana Viana extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mallory Martin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Mallory Martin | Polyana Viana |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 976 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.