March 12, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 956 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Matheus Nicolau's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matheus Nicolau for the expected result. Had Manel Kape pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 965 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 976 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matheus Nicolau receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 150 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 972 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Manel Kape controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (61 vs 55), superior accuracy (40.7% vs 53.9%). However, since Manel Kape lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matheus Nicolau's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:38 | 2:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 953 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matheus Nicolau edged out Manel Kape on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 35 | 960 |
| Activity ELO | 971 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +15 |
Matheus Nicolau demonstrated extended layoff with 960 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while Manel Kape's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +18 |
Matheus Nicolau started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Manel Kape is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Manel Kape | Matheus Nicolau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 965 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

