Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau

March 12, 2021

Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

966
(-17)
Manel Kape
Winner: Matheus Nicolau
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Manel Kape-17
Matheus Nicolau+17
1101
(+17)
Matheus Nicolau

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -23Matheus Nicolau: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Total UFC Fights25
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9561 100
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Matheus Nicolau's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matheus Nicolau for the expected result. Had Manel Kape pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -17Matheus Nicolau: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9651 058
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -7Matheus Nicolau: +7

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9761 100
ELO Change-7+7
💡

What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Matheus Nicolau receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -11Matheus Nicolau: +11

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Significant Strikes Landed6155
Significant Strikes Attempted150102
Total Strikes Landed7376
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9721 186
ELO Change-11+11
💡

What Happened

Manel Kape controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (61 vs 55), superior accuracy (40.7% vs 53.9%). However, since Manel Kape lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Matheus Nicolau's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -26Matheus Nicolau: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted09
Ground Control Time0:382:31
Ground Strikes Landed23
Ground ELO9531 155
ELO Change-26+26
💡

What Happened

Matheus Nicolau edged out Manel Kape on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -17Matheus Nicolau: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Days Since Last Fight35960
Activity ELO9711 075
ELO Change-17+15
💡

What Happened

Matheus Nicolau demonstrated extended layoff with 960 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Matheus Nicolau capitalized on this activity level, while Manel Kape's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -17Matheus Nicolau: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9671 073
ELO Change-17+18
💡

What Happened

Matheus Nicolau started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Manel Kape is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Manel Kape: -17Matheus Nicolau: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricManel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Weight ClassFlyweightFlyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9651 058
ELO Change-17+17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.