June 22, 2007
Ultimate Fighter 5 Lightweight Tournament Title Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:20 | 0:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +65 |
Nate Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:20, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Manvel Gamburyan was submitted.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 970 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Manvel Gamburyan controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 56 total strikes), significant strike advantage (16 vs 2). However, since Manvel Gamburyan lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Nate Diaz's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:15 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 958 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Nate Diaz edged out Manvel Gamburyan on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:25 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Manvel Gamburyan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Manvel Gamburyan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

