January 30, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Thiago Tavares's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Tavares for the expected result. Had Manvel Gamburyan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 009 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Thiago Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 86 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 70 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 874 | 933 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Thiago Tavares slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 42.2% vs 30.2% accuracy. Thiago Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:18 | 5:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 955 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Thiago Tavares controlled Manvel Gamburyan on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 5:08 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 015 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Thiago Tavares demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Manvel Gamburyan's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Thiago Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Manvel Gamburyan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Manvel Gamburyan | Thiago Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.