November 12, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 000 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +57 |
Rafael Alves overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Marc Diakiese.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:48 | 1:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 067 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +113 |
Rafael Alves earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:48, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 076 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Rafael Alves slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 54.5% vs 23.1% accuracy. Rafael Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 484 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +46 |
Rafael Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Marc Diakiese's 484-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Rafael Alves started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marc Diakiese is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marc Diakiese | Rafael Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 988 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.