February 2, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 017 | 969 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Timothy Johnson's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Timothy Johnson for the expected result. Had Marcelo Golm pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 020 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Timothy Johnson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 87 | 146 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 89 | 139 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 034 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Timothy Johnson dominated the striking exchanges with 139 vs 89 total strikes, 77 vs 59 significant strikes, 52.7% vs 67.8% accuracy. Timothy Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 5:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 041 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Timothy Johnson slightly outworked Marcelo Golm on the ground with 5:48 of control time, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Timothy Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Timothy Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Marcelo Golm's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Timothy Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcelo Golm is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcelo Golm | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.