March 4, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 997 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:09 | 1:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 955 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +45 |
Vitor Miranda gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 44 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 927 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Vitor Miranda controlled the striking exchanges with 61 vs 31 total strikes, 46 vs 23 significant strikes, 64.8% vs 52.3% accuracy. Vitor Miranda capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:57 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 019 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Vitor Miranda did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcelo Guimaraes on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 617 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Vitor Miranda demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Vitor Miranda capitalized on this activity level, while Marcelo Guimaraes's 617-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Vitor Miranda extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcelo Guimaraes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcelo Guimaraes | Vitor Miranda |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.