October 20, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Marcin Held's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcin Held for the expected result. Had Nasrat Haqparast pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 972 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 986 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Marcin Held earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 905 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Nasrat Haqparast controlled the striking through superior volume (43 vs 59 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (27 vs 19), superior accuracy (36.0% vs 21.3%), 1 knockdown. However, since Nasrat Haqparast lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Marcin Held's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:25 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 012 | 913 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -87 |
Marcin Held controlled Nasrat Haqparast on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 7:25 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 146 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 009 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -23 |
Marcin Held demonstrated solid activity levels with 146 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcin Held capitalized on this activity level, while Nasrat Haqparast's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 977 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Marcin Held started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nasrat Haqparast is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcin Held | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 971 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.