August 21, 2020
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 924 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Mike Rodriguez's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Rodriguez for the expected result. Had Marcin Prachnio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 942 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:17 | 2:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 907 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +68 |
Mike Rodriguez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 784 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Mike Rodriguez controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 14 significant strikes, 80.8% vs 70.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Mike Rodriguez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:25 | 0:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 869 | 965 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Mike Rodriguez landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 707 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 952 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Mike Rodriguez demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mike Rodriguez capitalized on this activity level, while Marcin Prachnio's 707-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 944 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Mike Rodriguez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcin Prachnio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Mike Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 942 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

