February 23, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Sam Alvey's 13-fight experience advantage (14 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Alvey for the expected result. Had Marcin Prachnio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:23 | 4:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +39 |
Sam Alvey earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 945 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Marcin Prachnio controlled the striking through superior volume (36 vs 14 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (15 vs 10). However, since Marcin Prachnio lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sam Alvey's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 1:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 983 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Sam Alvey slightly outworked Marcin Prachnio on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:41 of control time, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 994 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +11 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Marcin Prachnio's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
Sam Alvey started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcin Prachnio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcin Prachnio | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

