March 15, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 244 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Marcin Tybura's 4-fight experience advantage (19 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcin Tybura for the expected result. Had Tai Tuivasa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 114 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:08 | 4:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 473 | 1 390 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -47 |
Marcin Tybura earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 221 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Marcin Tybura dominated the striking exchanges with 73 vs 18 total strikes, 27 vs 15 significant strikes. Marcin Tybura capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:48 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 318 | 932 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Marcin Tybura dominated Tai Tuivasa on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:48 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 297 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Marcin Tybura demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marcin Tybura capitalized on this activity level, while Tai Tuivasa's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 169 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Marcin Tybura started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tai Tuivasa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 111 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.