April 9, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 968 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Timothy Johnson's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Timothy Johnson for the expected result. Had Marcin Tybura pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 965 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Timothy Johnson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 101 | 127 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 75 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 981 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Marcin Tybura controlled the striking through superior accuracy (47.5% vs 35.4%). However, since Marcin Tybura lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Timothy Johnson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:17 | 3:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 977 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Timothy Johnson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcin Tybura on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:44 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Timothy Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Timothy Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Marcin Tybura's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Timothy Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcin Tybura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcin Tybura | Timothy Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

