Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Tim Means

December 19, 2014

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

934
(-18)
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Winner: Tim Means
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Marcio Alexandre Junior-18
Tim Means+21
1044
(+21)
Tim Means

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -32Tim Means: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Total UFC Fights27
Experience Gap-55
Experience ELO9471 007
ELO Change-32+32
💡

What Happened

Tim Means's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had Marcio Alexandre Junior pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -20Tim Means: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9591 020
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -8Tim Means: +8

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9501 054
ELO Change-8+8
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tim Means receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -11Tim Means: +11

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Significant Strikes Landed3643
Significant Strikes Attempted8068
Total Strikes Landed6053
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9151 146
ELO Change-11+11
💡

What Happened

Tim Means slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 43 vs 36 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 45.0% accuracy. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -20Tim Means: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted42
Ground Control Time1:462:17
Ground Strikes Landed86
Ground ELO818970
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

Tim Means did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcio Alexandre Junior on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:17 of control time, 6 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -16Tim Means: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Days Since Last Fight204148
Activity ELO9631 103
ELO Change-16+31
💡

What Happened

Tim Means demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Marcio Alexandre Junior's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -19Tim Means: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9601 031
ELO Change-19+23
💡

What Happened

Tim Means extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcio Alexandre Junior is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Marcio Alexandre Junior: -20Tim Means: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricMarcio Alexandre JuniorTim Means
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9591 020
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.