December 19, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 947 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Tim Means's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had Marcio Alexandre Junior pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 950 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tim Means receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 43 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 915 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Tim Means slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 43 vs 36 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 45.0% accuracy. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:46 | 2:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 818 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Tim Means did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcio Alexandre Junior on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:17 of control time, 6 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 963 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Tim Means demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Marcio Alexandre Junior's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Tim Means extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcio Alexandre Junior is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

