January 13, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Marco Polo Reyes's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marco Polo Reyes for the expected result. Had Matt Frevola pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 057 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:00 | 1:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 196 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -28 |
Marco Polo Reyes secured a devastating KO/TKO in 1:00 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 160 | 880 |
| ELO Change | +120 | -120 |
Marco Polo Reyes dominated the striking exchanges with 18 vs 9 significant strikes, 46.2% vs 30.0% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Marco Polo Reyes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 101 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 247 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 080 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Marco Polo Reyes demonstrated standard activity with 247 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marco Polo Reyes capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Frevola's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Marco Polo Reyes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Frevola is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Marco Polo Reyes | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

